Closing spread
KC -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/35 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 32 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 12 | 63 | 1 |
| Tony Moeaki | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.