Closing spread
KC -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- QuestionableDexter McClusterWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKendrick LewisSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRyan LiljaGHand· Full
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRKnee· DNP
- OutJohn HendersonDTFoot· DNP
- OutLouis MurphyWRChest· DNP
- DoubtfulNnamdi AsomughaCBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulZach MillerTEFoot· DNP
- QuestionableHiram EugeneSPectoral· Limited
- ProbableBruce GradkowskiQBright Shoulder· Limited
- ProbableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableSamson SateleCKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:32 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:24 | 7 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:39 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:16 | 6 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:31 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 13:13 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:08 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 9:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:12 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 5:27 | 11 | 56 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 1:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 1:02 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| KC | Q3 14:48 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 14:30 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| KC | Q3 13:07 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 9:41 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LV | Q3 4:38 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 2:46 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LV | Q4 14:42 | 11 | 75 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| KC | Q4 9:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–17 |
| KC | Q4 8:52 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 6:13 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 20–17 |
| KC | Q4 4:04 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:06 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| KC | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| KC | OT | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LV | OT | 2 | 47 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/35 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 32 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 12 | 63 | 1 |
| Tony Moeaki | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.