2010 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

10·26

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRavens
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.028
  • 41.7%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.102
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.81CPOE+2.93
  • 40.4%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.78
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BAL
BALQ1 15:00776Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:081180Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 5:231156Field goal7–10
MIAQ2 14:1321Turnover7–10
BALQ2 13:254-11Turnover on downs7–10
MIAQ2 10:553-7Punt7–10
BALQ2 9:081054Field goal7–13
MIAQ2 2:551079Field goal10–13
BALQ2 0:1500End of half10–13
MIAQ3 15:0037Punt10–13
BALQ3 13:32981Touchdown10–20
MIAQ3 9:23638Punt10–20
BALQ3 6:071170Missed field goal10–20
MIAQ3 0:43745Missed field goal10–20
BALQ4 12:431261Field goal10–23
MIAQ4 6:4520Turnover10–23
BALQ4 6:23617Field goal10–26
MIAQ4 2:071046Turnover10–26
BALQ4 0:3500End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne22/3423103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown9596.61
Chad Henne6132.20
Ricky Williams210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline45850
Davone Bess58500
Ronnie Brown56400
Brandon Marshall58300
Anthony Fasano37260

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/2726620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice22833.80
Willis McGahee6244.00
David Reed11515.00
Joe Flacco471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice78970
Derrick Mason45421
Willis McGahee33421
T.J. Houshmandzadeh22340
Anquan Boldin27280
Todd Heap22230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.10