Closing spread
BAL -5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.028
- 41.7%Success rate41.8%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.102
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.81CPOE+2.93
- 40.4%Third-down rate38.4%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.34Points / drive1.78
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 22/34 | 231 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 5 | 85 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/27 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Reed | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 7 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.10