Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.249
- 46.2%Success rate33.5%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.215
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +5.83CPOE-7.94
- 48.8%Third-down rate30.0%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.88Points / drive0.77
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/43 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 6 | 68 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 8 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 8/18 | 47 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Pike | 6/12 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 3/6 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Sutton | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gettis | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.64