2010 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

34·3

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.249
  • 46.2%Success rate33.5%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.215
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +5.83CPOE-7.94
  • 48.8%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive0.77
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:00469Turnover0–0
CARQ1 13:14526Field goal0–3
NOQ1 10:19825Punt0–3
CARQ1 6:2427Turnover0–3
NOQ1 5:31732Touchdown7–3
CARQ1 2:28643Missed field goal7–3
NOQ2 14:5238Punt7–3
CARQ2 12:453-5Punt7–3
NOQ2 11:2332Punt7–3
CARQ2 10:17610Punt7–3
NOQ2 8:03978Touchdown14–3
CARQ2 2:49610Punt14–3
NOQ2 0:54570Field goal17–3
CARQ3 15:0032Punt17–3
NOQ3 13:401126Field goal20–3
CARQ3 8:38724Punt20–3
NOQ3 5:24633Punt20–3
CARQ3 2:37517Opp touchdown27–3
CARQ3 0:413-14Punt27–3
NOQ4 14:5236Punt27–3
CARQ4 14:1533Punt27–3
NOQ4 13:321143Touchdown34–3
CARQ4 8:121030Turnover on downs34–3
NOQ4 3:51716Turnover on downs34–3
CARQ4 1:01842End of half34–3

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/4325321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones66811.30
Chris Ivory12504.20
Ladell Betts13312.41
Chase Daniel11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Moore68770
Marques Colston89650
Jimmy Graham34491
David Thomas46450
Robert Meachem25150
Jeremy Shockey1271
Ladell Betts1210
Devery Henderson0200
Julius Jones23-60

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen8/184701
Tony Pike6/124700
Matt Moore3/61300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrell Sutton7415.90
Jonathan Stewart5306.00
Mike Goodson9293.20
Jimmy Clausen11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Gettis25220
Mike Goodson34180
Jeff King35170
Tyrell Sutton33150
Brandon LaFell23140
Dante Rosario25100
Steve Smith1690
Gary Barnidge0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.64