2010 · Week 9

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

41·7

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Charlie Whitehurst

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NYG -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

-2.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.117
  • 44.3%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback-0.072
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.194
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.60CPOE-1.80
  • 37.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.36
  • 4.0%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYG @ SEA29–20NYG
2023 · W4SEA @ NYG24–3SEA
2022 · W8NYG @ SEA13–27SEA
2020 · W13NYG @ SEA17–12NYG
2017 · W7SEA @ NYG24–7SEA
2014 · W10NYG @ SEA17–38SEA
2013 · W15SEA @ NYG23–0SEA
2011 · W5SEA @ NYG36–25SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SEA
SEAQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:18532Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 10:4431Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:26836Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 5:4939Punt7–0
NYGQ1 4:18558Touchdown14–0
SEAQ1 2:1800Touchdown20–0
NYGQ1 2:0814Touchdown21–0
SEAQ1 2:03410Turnover21–0
NYGQ2 14:461283Touchdown28–0
SEAQ2 9:15939Turnover28–0
NYGQ2 5:041086Touchdown35–0
SEAQ2 0:53627Turnover on downs35–0
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half35–0
NYGQ3 15:0044Punt35–0
SEAQ3 13:2033Punt35–0
NYGQ3 11:25440Field goal38–0
SEAQ3 10:0534Punt38–0
NYGQ3 8:291569Field goal41–0
SEAQ4 15:00370Touchdown41–7
NYGQ4 13:341679Turnover on downs41–7
SEAQ4 0:3414End of half41–7

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/3229030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs11787.10
D.J. Ware13665.10
Ahmad Bradshaw19573.02
Eli Manning1-1-1.00
Sage Rosenfels3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks6131281
Mario Manningham44560
Steve Smith47461
Ahmad Bradshaw44350
Kevin Boss22151
Bear Pascoe11100
Travis Beckum0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst12/2311312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch11484.40
Charlie Whitehurst221.00
Justin Forsett1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Obomanu11361
Brandon Stokley23260
Mike Williams28250
John Carlson2290
Chris Baker1270
Justin Forsett1150
Deon Butler3650

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.48
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin-2.66