Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.117
- 44.3%Success rate38.3%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.194
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.60CPOE-1.80
- 37.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.36
- 4.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 8-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/32 | 290 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 6 | 13 | 128 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 12/23 | 113 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-2.66