Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.042
- 40.3%Success rate44.3%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.191
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.44CPOE+0.88
- 44.1%Third-down rate39.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.89Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/27 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 7 | 110 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/36 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 10 | 14 | 141 | 2 |
| Jordan Shipley | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38