2010 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·21

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.042
  • 40.3%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.191
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.44CPOE+0.88
  • 44.1%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
PITQ1 14:52425Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 12:57520Punt7–0
PITQ1 10:03523Field goal10–0
CINQ1 7:4632Punt10–0
PITQ1 6:39624Punt10–0
CINQ1 2:24637Punt10–0
PITQ2 13:35537Turnover10–0
CINQ2 10:51438Touchdown10–7
PITQ2 8:4631Punt10–7
CINQ2 7:38518Turnover10–7
PITQ2 5:10657Touchdown17–7
CINQ2 2:0765Missed field goal17–7
PITQ2 0:45324Field goal20–7
CINQ2 0:0500End of half20–7
PITQ3 15:003-10Punt20–7
CINQ3 12:52630Missed field goal20–7
PITQ3 8:4739Punt20–7
CINQ3 6:393-2Punt20–7
PITQ3 5:2636Punt20–7
CINQ3 4:5148Punt20–7
PITQ3 2:30556Touchdown27–7
CINQ4 14:50556Touchdown27–14
PITQ4 13:12520Turnover27–14
CINQ4 10:0641Touchdown27–21
PITQ4 9:05743Missed field goal27–21
CINQ4 3:591459Turnover on downs27–21
PITQ4 0:3400End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/2716311
Antwaan Randle El1/13910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall22994.51
Ben Roethlisberger5132.60
Mewelde Moore252.50
Antwaan Randle El122.00
Isaac Redman221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace571101
Rashard Mendenhall33310
Heath Miller35210
Matt Spaeth11120
Hines Ward36101
Antwaan Randle El13100
Mewelde Moore2280

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer22/3624821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson18543.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens10141412
Jordan Shipley47470
Cedric Benson22200
Chad Johnson17150
Brian Leonard33140
Jermaine Gresham23110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.38