Closing spread
SD -3
Total
50
Model margin
+2.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutNate KaedingKright Groin· DNP
- DoubtfulAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- DoubtfulBrandon SilerLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulMalcom FloydWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableLarry EnglishLBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRichard GoodmanWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableKevin BurnettLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableKris DielmanGNeck· Full
Texans
- QuestionableEarl MitchellDTAnkle· Full
- QuestionableJesse NadingDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableOwen DanielsTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableShaun CodyDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableXavier AdibiLBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableAndre JohnsonWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableMario WilliamsDEHip· Limited
- ProbableDarryl SharptonLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableGarrett GrahamTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableKarl PaymahCBWrist· Full
- ProbableKevin BentleyLBKnee· Full
- ProbableMike BrisielGKnee· Full
- ProbableStanford KeglarLBThigh· Full
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| HOU | Q1 13:10 | 1 | 8 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 13:06 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q1 9:28 | 10 | 33 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q1 4:47 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| HOU | Q1 1:08 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 15:00 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| HOU | Q2 14:12 | 9 | 38 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q2 10:23 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 14–17 |
| HOU | Q2 6:38 | 11 | 87 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q2 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–20 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 66 | Field goal | 14–23 |
| LAC | Q3 8:55 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 21–23 |
| HOU | Q3 5:48 | 10 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 21–23 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 21–23 |
| HOU | Q4 11:50 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 21–23 |
| LAC | Q4 9:31 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 29–23 |
| HOU | Q4 5:17 | 6 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 29–23 |
| LAC | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 29–23 |
| HOU | Q4 3:06 | 7 | 58 | Turnover | 29–23 |
| LAC | Q4 1:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 21/32 | 267 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| James Casey | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.