Closing spread
SD -3
Total
50
Model margin
+2.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 21/32 | 267 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| James Casey | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.