2025 · Week 17

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

20·16

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -1.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChargers
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.016
  • 41.7%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.080
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.68CPOE+0.01
  • 37.4%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.10
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 6–5 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsLAC @ HOU12–32HOU
2022 · W4LAC @ HOU34–24CHARGERS
2021 · W16LAC @ HOU29–41HOU
2019 · W3HOU @ LAC27–20HOU
2016 · W12SD @ HOU21–13CHARGERS
2013 · W1HOU @ SD31–28HOU
2010 · W9SD @ HOU29–23CHARGERS
2007 · W8HOU @ SD10–35CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–LAC
HOUQ1 15:00384Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 13:203-4Punt7–0
HOUQ1 11:19472Touchdown14–0
LACQ1 9:17613Punt14–0
HOUQ1 5:01612Punt14–0
LACQ1 2:0436Punt14–0
HOUQ1 0:36846Punt14–0
LACQ2 11:0537Punt14–0
HOUQ2 9:4035Turnover14–0
LACQ2 8:48528Field goal14–3
HOUQ2 6:10519Punt14–3
LACQ2 3:19573Turnover14–3
HOUQ2 1:06421Turnover14–3
LACQ2 0:4558Missed field goal14–3
HOUQ2 0:1000End of half14–3
LACQ3 15:0036Punt14–3
HOUQ3 13:25311Punt14–3
LACQ3 11:463-5Punt14–3
HOUQ3 9:38634Field goal17–3
LACQ3 6:041259Touchdown17–10
HOUQ3 0:1366Punt17–10
LACQ4 13:13619Punt17–10
HOUQ4 10:36724Field goal20–10
LACQ4 6:29965Touchdown20–16
HOUQ4 3:37730End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud16/2824422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks19713.70
Jawhar Jordan8364.50
Xavier Hutchinson188.00
Jaylin Noel122.00
Nick Chubb111.00
C.J. Stroud400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Higgins24881
Nico Collins34570
Jaylin Noel34541
Xavier Hutchinson23210
Dalton Schultz34190
Woody Marks1240
Christian Kirk2510

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3223611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert6376.20
Omarion Hampton14292.11
Tre Harris177.00
Jaret Patterson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston58980
Oronde Gadsden II36321
Ladd McConkey12310
Omarion Hampton88310
Will Dissly22190
Keenan Allen13170
Tre Harris1180
KeAndre Lambert-Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.82