Closing spread
LAC -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.016
- 41.7%Success rate43.6%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.68CPOE+0.01
- 37.4%Third-down rate46.7%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.05Points / drive2.10
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/28 | 244 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Higgins | 2 | 4 | 88 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 8 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82