Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.038
- 42.3%Success rate39.1%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.69CPOE-2.77
- 40.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 2.25Points / drive1.84
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 14/32 | 242 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 9 | 14 | 197 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/33 | 282 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 106 | 4.2 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65