2024 · WC

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

12·32

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapTexans
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.038
  • 42.3%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.120
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.69CPOE-2.77
  • 40.1%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.84
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 6–5 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17HOU @ LAC20–16HOU
2022 · W4LAC @ HOU34–24CHARGERS
2021 · W16LAC @ HOU29–41HOU
2019 · W3HOU @ LAC27–20HOU
2016 · W12SD @ HOU21–13CHARGERS
2013 · W1HOU @ SD31–28HOU
2010 · W9SD @ HOU29–23CHARGERS
2007 · W8HOU @ SD10–35CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–HOU
LACQ1 15:00957Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 9:3717Turnover3–0
LACQ1 9:28512Field goal6–0
HOUQ1 6:3533Punt6–0
LACQ1 4:5862Punt6–0
HOUQ1 2:35531Punt6–0
LACQ2 14:54533Punt6–0
HOUQ2 12:3833Turnover6–0
LACQ2 11:3910Turnover6–0
HOUQ2 11:31415Punt6–0
LACQ2 9:20619Punt6–0
HOUQ2 6:1514110Touchdown6–7
LACQ2 0:5830Punt6–7
HOUQ2 0:27445Field goal6–10
LACQ2 0:0300End of half6–10
HOUQ3 15:00444Turnover6–10
LACQ3 12:50525Turnover on downs6–10
HOUQ3 10:101176Field goal6–13
LACQ3 4:483-2Punt6–13
HOUQ3 2:3337Punt6–19
LACQ3 0:2110Opp touchdown6–20
LACQ3 0:13431Turnover6–20
HOUQ4 13:4431Field goal6–23
LACQ4 12:00370Touchdown12–25
HOUQ4 10:381474Touchdown12–32
LACQ4 3:42514Turnover12–32
HOUQ4 2:43215End of half12–32

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert14/3224214

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins9262.90
Gus Edwards7223.10
Hassan Haskins155.00
Derius Davis1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey9141971
Will Dissly25160
Tucker Fisk11150
DJ Chark14100
Derius Davis1140
J.K. Dobbins0100
Hassan Haskins0100
Quentin Johnston0500

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud22/3328211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon251064.21
C.J. Stroud6427.00
Dameon Pierce2157.50
Dare Ogunbowale155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins781221
Xavier Hutchinson11340
John Metchie III48280
Cade Stover44280
Dalton Schultz24230
Robert Woods24220
Joe Mixon12130
Diontae Johnson11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.65