Closing spread
SD -10
Total
46
Model margin
+4.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:35 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:52 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 5:49 | 4 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q1 3:38 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:07 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| HOU | Q2 12:00 | 5 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 3–28 |
| HOU | Q2 9:52 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 3–28 |
| LAC | Q2 7:29 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q2 2:31 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–35 |
| LAC | Q2 1:09 | 2 | 7 | End of half | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–35 |
| LAC | Q3 12:02 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q3 9:28 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–35 |
| LAC | Q3 6:38 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q3 5:33 | 11 | 66 | Turnover | 3–35 |
| LAC | Q3 0:16 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q4 11:33 | 12 | 94 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| LAC | Q4 4:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–35 |
| HOU | Q4 2:10 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–35 |
| LAC | Q4 1:54 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 10–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 17/27 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Schaub | 11/18 | 77 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Anderson | 3 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.