2021 · Week 16

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

29·41

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

LAC -13.5

Total

46

Model margin

-2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapTexans
  • +0.088EPA / play-0.134
  • 47.4%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.213
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -0.71CPOE-1.54
  • 45.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.55Points / drive1.50
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 6–5 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17HOU @ LAC20–16HOU
2024 · playoffsLAC @ HOU12–32HOU
2022 · W4LAC @ HOU34–24CHARGERS
2019 · W3HOU @ LAC27–20HOU
2016 · W12SD @ HOU21–13CHARGERS
2013 · W1HOU @ SD31–28HOU
2010 · W9SD @ HOU29–23CHARGERS
2007 · W8HOU @ SD10–35CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–HOU
LACQ1 15:00838Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 10:55966Touchdown3–7
LACQ1 6:25864Field goal6–7
HOUQ1 1:573-8Punt6–7
LACQ2 14:53865Touchdown12–7
HOUQ2 11:151152Field goal12–10
LACQ2 5:11325Turnover12–10
HOUQ2 3:57894Touchdown12–17
LACQ2 0:2714End of half12–17
HOUQ3 15:00852Missed field goal12–17
LACQ3 11:071046Field goal15–17
HOUQ3 5:421470Touchdown15–24
LACQ4 13:37218Turnover15–24
HOUQ4 12:48740Field goal15–27
LACQ4 8:54970Touchdown23–27
HOUQ4 5:50772Touchdown23–34
LACQ4 2:32412Opp touchdown23–41
LACQ4 1:49675Touchdown29–41
HOUQ4 0:3400End of half29–41

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert27/3533612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson11645.82
Justin Herbert4153.80
Joshua Kelley571.40
Maurice Ffrench133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jackson89980
Jason Moore34560
Jared Cook35440
Josh Palmer56431
Keenan Allen46350
Stephen Anderson22340
Joshua Kelley11140
Tre' McKitty11120

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills21/2725420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead221496.82
Royce Freeman12342.80
Davis Mills1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley33601
Brevin Jordan44560
Phillip Dorsett36550
Chris Moore44400
Nico Collins34331
Pharaoh Brown23100
Rex Burkhead2200
Jordan Akins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.00