Closing spread
LAC -13.5
Total
46
Model margin
-2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.134
- 47.4%Success rate37.6%
- +0.167EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- -0.71CPOE-1.54
- 45.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.55Points / drive1.50
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/35 | 336 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Ffrench | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 21/27 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 22 | 149 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 3 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Brevin Jordan | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.00