Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
49
Model margin
+3.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.036
- 45.6%Success rate47.3%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.12CPOE+3.58
- 43.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.18Points / drive1.99
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/34 | 351 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 5 | 73 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 5 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 31/46 | 318 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 13 | 17 | 183 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Sean Culkin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04