2019 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

27·20

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

49

Model margin

+3.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChargers
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.036
  • 45.6%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.12CPOE+3.58
  • 43.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.99
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 6–5 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17HOU @ LAC20–16HOU
2024 · playoffsLAC @ HOU12–32HOU
2022 · W4LAC @ HOU34–24CHARGERS
2021 · W16LAC @ HOU29–41HOU
2016 · W12SD @ HOU21–13CHARGERS
2013 · W1HOU @ SD31–28HOU
2010 · W9SD @ HOU29–23CHARGERS
2007 · W8HOU @ SD10–35CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–LAC
LACQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:454-3Turnover0–0
LACQ1 11:09315Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:411039Punt0–7
LACQ1 4:131687Field goal0–10
HOUQ2 10:32561Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 8:11524Punt7–10
HOUQ2 5:05737Punt7–10
LACQ2 1:401054Touchdown7–17
HOUQ2 0:22237Missed field goal7–17
HOUQ3 15:0038Punt7–17
LACQ3 12:553-8Punt7–17
HOUQ3 11:08855Touchdown14–17
LACQ3 7:31745Turnover14–17
HOUQ3 3:43758Touchdown21–17
LACQ3 1:19735Punt21–17
HOUQ4 13:28882Touchdown27–17
LACQ4 9:40550Field goal27–20
HOUQ4 7:1443Punt27–20
LACQ4 4:191560Turnover on downs27–20
HOUQ4 0:1100End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson25/3435130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde10191.91
Deshaun Watson7182.60
Duke Johnson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills46890
Jordan Akins35732
DeAndre Hopkins67670
Will Fuller57510
Darren Fells56491
Duke Johnson23220

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers31/4631820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler9364.00
Justin Jackson5265.20
Philip Rivers294.50
Keenan Allen133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen13171832
Mike Williams37450
Austin Ekeler77450
Dontrelle Inman13230
Lance Kendricks12130
Travis Benjamin2550
Justin Jackson4440
Sean Culkin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04