Closing spread
LAC -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.167
- 44.1%Success rate38.0%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.204
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.13CPOE-4.69
- 43.5%Third-down rate30.1%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.97Points / drive1.17
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/39 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Michael Bandy | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 26/35 | 246 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 14 | 131 | 9.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 6 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Schreck | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.55