2022 · Week 4

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

34·24

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

LAC -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapTexans
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.167
  • 44.1%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.204
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.13CPOE-4.69
  • 43.5%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.17
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 6–5 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17HOU @ LAC20–16HOU
2024 · playoffsLAC @ HOU12–32HOU
2021 · W16LAC @ HOU29–41HOU
2019 · W3HOU @ LAC27–20HOU
2016 · W12SD @ HOU21–13CHARGERS
2013 · W1HOU @ SD31–28HOU
2010 · W9SD @ HOU29–23CHARGERS
2007 · W8HOU @ SD10–35CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
LACQ1 13:28320Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 12:0072Punt7–0
LACQ1 8:0335Punt7–0
HOUQ1 6:26732Missed field goal7–0
LACQ1 2:19964Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 12:5735Punt14–0
LACQ2 11:18373Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 10:00175Touchdown21–7
LACQ2 9:48977Field goal24–7
HOUQ2 4:35838Turnover on downs24–7
LACQ2 0:57954Field goal27–7
LACQ3 15:0036Punt27–7
HOUQ3 13:27717Punt27–7
LACQ3 9:55736Punt27–7
HOUQ3 5:42887Touchdown27–14
LACQ3 1:12710Punt27–14
HOUQ4 12:55593Touchdown27–21
LACQ4 10:0200Field goal27–21
HOUQ4 9:583-4Field goal27–24
LACQ4 8:301379Touchdown34–24
HOUQ4 2:284-6Turnover34–24
LACQ4 1:5100Turnover on downs34–24
HOUQ4 0:1612End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert27/3934020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler13604.62
Joshua Kelley4153.80
Sony Michel6111.80
Justin Herbert4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams7111200
Gerald Everett56611
Austin Ekeler67491
Michael Bandy22490
Josh Palmer11250
DeAndre Carter23160
Sony Michel33160
Tre' McKitty1140
Joshua Kelley0200
Zander Horvath0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills26/3524622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce141319.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins35820
Brandin Cooks77571
Rex Burkhead55391
Jordan Akins22330
O.J. Howard25270
Dameon Pierce6680
Phillip Dorsett0200
Chris Moore0200
Mason Schreck1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.55