Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/37 | 246 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+0.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.