Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutAsante ClevelandTEConcussion· DNP
- OutBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· DNP
- OutJatavis BrownLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJeremy ButlerWRAnkle· Full
- QuestionableTourek WilliamsLBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableTravis BenjaminWRKnee· Full
Texans
- OutAlfred BlueRBCalf· DNP
- OutJaelen StrongWRAnkle· DNP
- OutJohn SimonLBChest· DNP
- OutTyler ErvinRBRibs· DNP
- QuestionableJay ProschRBHamstring· Limited
- LimitedJadeveon ClowneyDEElbow
- LimitedLamar MillerRBAnkle
- LimitedVince WilforkDTGroin
Win probability
- Texans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. HOU are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:46 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:18 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:29 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:44 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 1:27 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:11 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:44 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:47 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q2 1:54 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:20 | 3 | 15 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 11:02 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q3 7:36 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 6:47 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q3 4:37 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q4 14:09 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| HOU | Q4 9:52 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q4 9:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–10 |
| HOU | Q4 7:06 | 9 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q4 4:25 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 21–10 |
| HOU | Q4 2:17 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| HOU | Q4 0:12 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 21–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/37 | 246 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+0.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.