Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Texans
- OutDarryl SharptonLBConcussion· DNP
- OutDavid QuessenberryTFoot· DNP
- QuestionableEd ReedSHip· Limited
- ProbableA.J. BouyeCBKnee· Full
- ProbableArian FosterRBCalf· Full
- ProbableBrian CushingLBKnee· Full
- ProbableBrice McCainCBKnee· Full
- ProbableBrooks ReedLBBack· Full
- ProbableDeAndre HopkinsWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableDeVier PoseyWRAchilles· Full
- ProbableEddie PleasantSKnee· Full
- ProbableGarrett GrahamTEHip· Full
- ProbableSam MontgomeryLBAchilles· Full
- ProbableWade SmithGKnee· Full
- ProbableWhitney MercilusLBHamstring· Full
Chargers
- OutManti Te'oLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableBrandon TaylorSKnee· Full
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableEddie RoyalWRChest· Full
- ProbableJohnny PatrickCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableMalcom FloydWRKnee· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBChest· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q1 14:50 | 1 | 14 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 14:45 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 13:16 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 9:02 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:11 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 12:24 | 7 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 8:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 6:39 | 11 | 54 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:01 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| HOU | Q2 0:18 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| HOU | Q3 10:42 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| LAC | Q3 4:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–28 |
| HOU | Q3 3:30 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| LAC | Q4 14:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–28 |
| HOU | Q4 13:04 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 27–28 |
| LAC | Q4 9:38 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 28–28 |
| LAC | Q4 9:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–28 |
| HOU | Q4 8:59 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 28–28 |
| LAC | Q4 5:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–28 |
| HOU | Q4 3:53 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 34/45 | 346 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 12 | 16 | 146 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 67 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.