Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 34/45 | 346 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 12 | 16 | 146 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 67 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.