2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

16·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -7

Total

36.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.249EPA / play+0.046
  • 33.5%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.274EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.215EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -7.94CPOE+2.31
  • 30.0%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 44.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 0.77Points / drive1.88
  • 3.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:00522Turnover0–0
TBQ1 12:44447Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:37926Punt0–7
TBQ1 5:543-6Punt0–7
CARQ1 4:25624Field goal3–7
TBQ1 0:52687Touchdown3–14
CARQ2 12:23413Punt3–14
CARQ2 10:29646Touchdown10–14
TBQ2 7:5737Punt10–14
CARQ2 6:12411Punt10–14
TBQ2 4:051054Touchdown10–21
CARQ2 0:50317End of half10–21
TBQ3 15:00343Turnover10–21
CARQ3 13:0432Punt10–21
TBQ3 12:11835Punt10–21
CARQ3 6:47554Field goal13–21
TBQ3 4:2838Punt13–21
CARQ3 2:3833Field goal16–21
TBQ3 1:021071Field goal16–24
CARQ4 10:02627Punt16–24
TBQ4 6:40876Touchdown16–31
CARQ4 2:421155Turnover on downs16–31
TBQ4 0:0700End of half16–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen16/2919100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Goodson231004.30
Jimmy Clausen5112.20
Josh Vaughan372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith36470
David Gettis33420
Brandon LaFell34360
David Clowney12250
Dante Rosario25240
Mike Goodson34130
Jeff King1340

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman18/2424120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount19914.81
Cadillac Williams56212.41
Josh Freeman5193.80
Josh Johnson11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams47680
Kellen Winslow66651
John Gilmore33520
Arrelious Benn22291
Cadillac Williams22230
Preston Parker1240
Micheal Spurlock0100
LeGarrette Blount0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.14