2010 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play+0.046
- 33.5%Success rate42.0%
- -0.274EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -7.94CPOE+2.31
- 30.0%Third-down rate42.5%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 0.77Points / drive1.88
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 16/29 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Goodson | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh Vaughan | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 18/24 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 6 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| John Gilmore | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14