Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.095
- 44.3%Success rate47.2%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.88CPOE+3.98
- 39.8%Third-down rate44.8%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.45Points / drive2.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 31/42 | 292 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 7 | 13 | 86 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 9 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/36 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon James | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.90