2010 · Week 10

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

17·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+4.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapColts
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.095
  • 44.3%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +0.88CPOE+3.98
  • 39.8%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–IND
INDQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:31612Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:501382Field goal0–3
CINQ1 3:2521Opp touchdown0–10
CINQ1 2:2811Turnover0–10
INDQ1 2:14725Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 14:19755Field goal3–17
INDQ2 9:51629Punt3–17
CINQ2 6:061085Touchdown10–17
INDQ2 1:061035Field goal10–20
CINQ3 15:00420Punt10–20
INDQ3 12:0333Punt10–20
CINQ3 9:54419Punt10–20
INDQ3 7:1739Punt10–20
CINQ3 5:15526Punt10–20
INDQ3 2:35630Punt10–20
CINQ3 0:28824Turnover10–20
INDQ4 11:1335Field goal10–23
CINQ4 10:01735Turnover10–23
INDQ4 5:47426Punt10–23
CINQ4 4:45546Touchdown17–23
INDQ4 2:3500Turnover17–23
CINQ4 2:3316Turnover17–23
INDQ4 2:2338Punt17–23
CINQ4 0:463-16End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer31/4229223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Leonard14242.00
Cedric Benson14241.70
Bernard Scott482.00
Andre Caldwell1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson713861
Jermaine Gresham910851
Terrell Owens48640
Cedric Benson55270
Jordan Shipley22130
Reggie Kelly2290
Brian Leonard2280

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/3618500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown12504.20
Javarris James10262.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme710730
Pierre Garcon59370
Brandon James48360
Reggie Wayne36340
Gijon Robinson1250
Donald Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.90