2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

33·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYG -11.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.006
  • 43.2%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.118
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.25CPOE+2.60
  • 40.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.81
  • 2.5%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00527Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:32419Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:15955Field goal0–3
DALQ1 5:04371Touchdown6–3
NYGQ1 3:2837Punt6–3
DALQ1 2:11660Field goal9–3
NYGQ2 14:261264Opp touchdown16–3
NYGQ2 7:3456Punt16–3
DALQ2 4:59439Field goal19–3
NYGQ2 3:04667Field goal19–6
DALQ2 1:24519Turnover on downs19–6
DALQ3 15:00371Touchdown26–6
NYGQ3 13:56953Touchdown26–13
DALQ3 8:56795Touchdown33–13
NYGQ3 6:27338Touchdown33–20
DALQ3 5:1937Punt33–20
NYGQ3 3:58525Punt33–20
DALQ3 0:5634Punt33–20
NYGQ4 14:21948Turnover on downs33–20
DALQ4 10:0856Turnover33–20
NYGQ4 8:37532Turnover33–20
DALQ4 7:1235Missed field goal33–20
NYGQ4 5:451058Turnover33–20
DALQ4 2:45435End of half33–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna13/2232731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones14513.60
Marion Barber8475.90
Jon Kitna520.40
Miles Austin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant351041
Felix Jones33851
Miles Austin23681
Roy Williams22330
Martellus Bennett12320
Jason Witten1270
Chris Gronkowski0200
Marion Barber12-20

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning33/4837322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw20733.60
Eli Manning3175.70
Brandon Jacobs5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham1016911
Hakeem Nicks58820
Kevin Boss57811
Ahmad Bradshaw67620
Ramses Barden34340
Travis Beckum22120
Brandon Jacobs23110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10