Closing spread
NYG -11.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.006
- 43.2%Success rate44.3%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.25CPOE+2.60
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.67Points / drive1.81
- 2.5%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 13/22 | 327 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 5 | 104 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 85 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 33/48 | 373 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 10 | 16 | 91 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 5 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10