Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play+0.019
- 47.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.010
- +0.039EPA / rush+0.030
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- +0.65CPOE+1.85
- 41.2%Third-down rate39.5%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.09Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/32 | 314 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 11 | 146 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 6 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 24/31 | 342 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 8 | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
48.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.90