2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

24·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.107EPA / play+0.019
  • 47.5%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.010
  • +0.039EPA / rush+0.030
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +0.65CPOE+1.85
  • 41.2%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001152Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 8:59969Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 4:31820Punt3–3
HOUQ2 15:0034Punt3–3
JAXQ2 13:27430Punt3–3
HOUQ2 11:29310Punt3–3
JAXQ2 10:33952Touchdown3–10
HOUQ2 5:32715Punt3–10
JAXQ2 1:51646Touchdown3–17
HOUQ2 0:3829End of half3–17
HOUQ3 15:00790Touchdown10–17
JAXQ3 11:19514Punt10–17
HOUQ3 8:40880Touchdown17–17
JAXQ3 5:10864Missed field goal17–17
HOUQ4 14:56425Punt17–17
JAXQ4 12:501087Touchdown17–24
HOUQ4 6:57758Touchdown24–24
JAXQ4 4:19865Missed field goal24–24
HOUQ4 1:34635Turnover24–24
JAXQ4 0:08261Touchdown24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub22/3231420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster15563.71
Matt Schaub3144.70
Derrick Ward3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson9111461
Kevin Walter66901
David Anderson23270
Joel Dreessen23240
James Casey12180
Jacoby Jones1250
Arian Foster1240

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard24/3134220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew241004.22
David Garrard7355.00
Mike Thomas2189.00
Rashad Jennings188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas891491
Zach Miller45791
Marcedes Lewis56530
Mike Sims-Walker34260
Maurice Jones-Drew23230
Kassim Osgood0100
Tiquan Underwood0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

48.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.90