2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

29·49

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

44

Model margin

+0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.017
  • 42.3%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.205
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.87CPOE-2.61
  • 37.4%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.70
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 12:02617Punt0–7
DENQ1 8:56982Touchdown0–14
KCQ1 4:1936Punt0–14
DENQ1 2:34353Touchdown0–21
KCQ1 1:19726Missed field goal0–21
DENQ2 13:17858Touchdown0–28
KCQ2 10:071031Opp touchdown0–35
KCQ2 5:48983Touchdown7–35
DENQ2 1:28633Missed field goal10–35
KCQ2 0:0100Field goal10–35
KCQ3 15:0035Punt10–35
DENQ3 14:091060Touchdown10–42
KCQ3 9:241383Turnover on downs10–42
DENQ3 4:4337Punt10–42
KCQ3 3:44438Touchdown17–42
DENQ3 2:221066Touchdown17–49
KCQ4 11:471588Touchdown23–49
DENQ4 6:5436Punt23–49
KCQ4 5:16838Turnover on downs23–49
DENQ4 3:3048Turnover on downs23–49
KCQ4 1:55669Touchdown29–49
DENQ4 0:1000End of half29–49

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel33/5346940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles14412.90
Jackie Battle242.00
Thomas Jones430.80
Matt Cassel231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe13181862
Jamaal Charles59801
Terrance Copper58550
Verran Tucker13380
Chris Chambers48361
Tony Moeaki13340
Leonard Pope22210
Thomas Jones11190

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton22/3429640
Tim Tebow1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno221064.80
Eddie Royal22010.00
Lance Ball294.50
Tim Tebow221.01
Kyle Orton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd610902
Jabar Gaffney35571
Demaryius Thomas35510
Knowshon Moreno33501
Eddie Royal55390
Correll Buckhalter2290
Daniel Graham0200
Dan Gronkowski0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.37