Closing spread
KC -1
Total
44
Model margin
+0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.017
- 42.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.205
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.87CPOE-2.61
- 37.4%Third-down rate31.6%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.70Points / drive1.70
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 33/53 | 469 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 13 | 18 | 186 | 2 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Terrance Copper | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/34 | 296 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 10 | 90 | 2 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.37