2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

13·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

41

Model margin

+2.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.097
  • 42.3%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.30CPOE+0.87
  • 34.1%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.43
  • 3.5%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00943Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:021062Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 3:3031Turnover3–0
MINQ1 2:351137Missed field goal3–0
CHIQ2 12:101186Touchdown3–7
MINQ2 6:5736Punt3–7
CHIQ2 5:1538Punt9–7
MINQ2 3:26153Touchdown10–7
CHIQ2 3:17969Touchdown10–14
MINQ2 0:4434Turnover10–14
CHIQ2 0:16216Missed field goal10–14
MINQ2 0:0200End of half10–14
MINQ3 15:002-1Turnover10–14
CHIQ3 14:113-1Field goal10–17
MINQ3 13:12516Punt10–17
CHIQ3 10:323-6Punt10–17
MINQ3 9:1940Field goal13–17
CHIQ3 8:14614Field goal13–20
MINQ3 5:2630Punt13–20
CHIQ3 4:12839Turnover13–20
MINQ3 0:0846Punt13–20
CHIQ4 13:08855Touchdown13–27
MINQ4 8:3724Turnover13–27
CHIQ4 8:01412Punt13–27
MINQ4 5:06954Turnover13–27
CHIQ4 2:27427End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre18/3117013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17513.00
Toby Gerhart4205.00
Brett Favre1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin46641
Visanthe Shiancoe47290
Adrian Peterson47240
Toby Gerhart22170
Greg Lewis13130
Greg Camarillo14110
Jeff Dugan1190
Jimmy Kleinsasser1130

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3523732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte21693.30
Chester Taylor11333.00
Jay Cutler4246.00
Earl Bennett144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox57900
Devin Hester46381
Greg Olsen36311
Earl Bennett36210
Kellen Davis11191
Rashied Davis11120
Devin Aromashodu1290
Matt Forte1290
Chester Taylor3480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.67