Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.097
- 42.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.30CPOE+0.87
- 34.1%Third-down rate33.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.25Points / drive1.43
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/31 | 170 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/35 | 237 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 5 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67