2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

59·28

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.079
  • 44.2%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback-0.045
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.148
  • 11.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +4.09CPOE-4.10
  • 39.7%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.31
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:00188Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 14:4238Punt7–0
PHIQ1 12:51563Touchdown14–0
WASQ1 10:1736Turnover14–0
PHIQ1 8:52642Touchdown21–0
WASQ1 5:0237Punt21–0
PHIQ1 3:29377Touchdown28–0
WASQ1 1:5532Punt28–0
PHIQ1 0:48358Touchdown35–0
WASQ2 14:51274Touchdown35–7
PHIQ2 14:15514Punt35–7
WASQ2 11:03386Touchdown35–14
PHIQ2 9:39522Punt35–14
WASQ2 6:2649Turnover35–14
PHIQ2 5:08528Touchdown42–14
WASQ2 3:3439Punt42–14
PHIQ2 2:40433Field goal45–14
WASQ2 0:25213End of half45–14
WASQ3 15:00951Touchdown45–21
PHIQ3 11:271176Touchdown52–21
WASQ3 6:1533Opp touchdown59–21
WASQ3 5:1944Punt59–21
PHIQ3 3:37740Punt59–21
WASQ4 14:04784Touchdown59–28
PHIQ4 11:16841Punt59–28
WASQ4 4:30419Punt59–28
PHIQ4 2:13311End of half59–28

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick20/2833340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison111099.91
Mike Vick88010.02
LeSean McCoy11433.90
Eldra Buckley5132.60
Jeremy Maclin11111.00
DeSean Jackson155.00
Kevin Kolb1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson23981
Jeremy Maclin46791
Jason Avant55761
LeSean McCoy56511
Jerome Harrison11150
Brent Celek2480
Riley Cooper0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb17/3129523

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keiland Williams16895.62
Donovan McNabb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong35830
Fred Davis11710
Keiland Williams47501
Mike Sellers11280
Santana Moss35280
Chris Cooley37230
Roydell Williams1290
Joey Galloway0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.45