2010 · Week 10 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.079
- 44.2%Success rate40.8%
- +0.104EPA / dropback-0.045
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.148
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.09CPOE-4.10
- 39.7%Third-down rate29.2%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.97Points / drive1.31
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/28 | 333 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 11 | 109 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 80 | 10.0 | 2 |
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 98 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/31 | 295 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keiland Williams | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 3 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 71 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.45