Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.220
- 38.3%Success rate37.1%
- -0.072EPA / dropback-0.248
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.165
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.80CPOE-9.59
- 37.0%Third-down rate27.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.36Points / drive1.06
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/34 | 333 | 1 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 4/6 | 53 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 11 | 17 | 145 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 23/45 | 322 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 15 | 91 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 6 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15