2010 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

36·18

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Derek Anderson

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • -0.117EPA / play-0.220
  • 38.3%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback-0.248
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.165
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.80CPOE-9.59
  • 37.0%Third-down rate27.4%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.06
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00552Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 12:481277Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 7:44629Punt7–7
SEAQ1 5:003-7Punt7–7
ARIQ1 3:363-5Punt7–7
SEAQ1 1:41767Field goal10–7
ARIQ2 13:23772Field goal10–10
SEAQ2 8:11275Touchdown17–10
ARIQ2 7:2848Punt17–10
SEAQ2 5:16964Turnover on downs17–10
ARIQ2 1:02432Punt17–10
SEAQ2 0:1500End of half17–10
SEAQ3 15:00458Turnover17–10
ARIQ3 12:5134Punt17–10
SEAQ3 11:57964Field goal20–10
ARIQ3 7:0510Turnover20–10
SEAQ3 6:52626Field goal23–10
ARIQ3 4:502-4Turnover23–10
SEAQ3 4:00512Field goal26–10
ARIQ3 1:153-5Punt26–10
SEAQ3 0:13610Field goal29–10
ARIQ4 12:181284Touchdown29–18
SEAQ4 7:52738Missed field goal29–18
ARIQ4 5:064-9Turnover on downs29–18
SEAQ4 4:48310Touchdown36–18
ARIQ4 3:491069Turnover on downs36–18
SEAQ4 1:3900End of half36–18

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3433310
Charlie Whitehurst4/65301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett9647.11
Marshawn Lynch13292.21
Ben Obomanu2178.50
Deon Butler144.00
Matt Hasselbeck100.00
Mike Williams100.00
Charlie Whitehurst4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams11171450
Deon Butler47661
Ben Obomanu45600
Chris Baker24510
Marshawn Lynch22330
Justin Forsett34310
John Carlson0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson23/4532211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower13393.01
Early Doucet122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston410980
Larry Fitzgerald715910
Early Doucet610711
Tim Hightower23230
Stephen Spach11140
LaRod Stephens-Howling23140
Ben Patrick11110
Jason Wright0100
Andre Roberts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.15