Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutDanario AlexanderWRKnee· DNP
- OutJames ButlerSAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulFendi OnobunTEBack· Limited
- ProbableJames HallDEHand· Limited
- ProbableNa'il DiggsLBShin· Limited
- ProbableRodger SaffoldTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBFinger· Limited
- ProbableBrit MillerRBCalf· Full
- ProbableDavid VoboraLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBKnee· Full
- ProbableRon BartellCBNeck· Full
49ers
- OutAlex SmithQBleft Shoulder· Limited
- ProbableChilo RachalGNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableNate ClementsCBAnkle· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:35 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:50 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:49 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:10 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:01 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 12:04 | 8 | 42 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 9:08 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 5:55 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 3:58 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:14 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 6:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 6:10 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SF | Q3 2:48 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 0:38 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–10 |
| SF | Q4 14:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 13:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–10 |
| SF | Q4 11:47 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LA | Q4 9:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–13 |
| SF | Q4 7:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LA | Q4 6:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–13 |
| SF | Q4 4:12 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LA | Q4 2:10 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| LA | OT | 3 | -3 | Punt | 20–20 |
| SF | OT | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 17/28 | 356 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.