Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 17/28 | 356 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.