Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.071
- 40.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.155
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.87CPOE-1.81
- 34.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.83Points / drive1.34
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 9/18 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 9/20 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 117 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scaife | 7 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 9 | 26 | 1 |
| Justin Gage | 3 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 19/28 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 4/6 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1/2 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 11 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 7 | 107 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 7 | 98 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.04