2010 · Week 10

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

17·29

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Pennington

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

43

Model margin

+2.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.071
  • 40.0%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.155
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.87CPOE-1.81
  • 34.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.34
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
TENQ1 15:00310Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 14:07631Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:23747Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 8:3248Turnover on downs7–7
TENQ1 7:0236Field goal10–7
MIAQ1 5:36412Punt10–7
TENQ1 3:3331Punt10–7
MIAQ1 2:333-4Punt10–7
TENQ1 0:57310Punt10–7
MIAQ2 14:15775Field goal10–10
TENQ2 10:26625Punt10–10
MIAQ2 7:3132Punt10–10
TENQ2 6:1439Punt10–10
MIAQ2 4:15642Turnover10–10
TENQ2 1:45918End of half10–10
MIAQ3 15:001190Field goal10–13
TENQ3 8:073-7Turnover10–13
MIAQ3 7:13213Touchdown10–20
TENQ3 6:591174Touchdown17–20
MIAQ3 1:13741Field goal17–23
TENQ4 13:30628Punt17–23
MIAQ4 9:42970Touchdown17–29
TENQ4 5:15938Turnover17–29
MIAQ4 3:18626End of half17–29

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young9/189211
Kerry Collins9/205100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson171176.91
Vince Young2147.00
Javon Ringer640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bo Scaife79510
Randy Moss14260
Nate Washington39261
Justin Gage39180
Chris Johnson1370
Javon Ringer1140
Craig Stevens0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne19/2824011
Tyler Thigpen4/66410
Chad Pennington1/21900
Brandon Marshall0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams11645.80
Ronnie Brown12110.91
Tyler Thigpen252.50
Chad Henne231.50
Patrick Cobbs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Fasano571071
Brian Hartline57980
Patrick Cobbs35351
Brandon Marshall37340
Davone Bess46290
Ricky Williams2260
Ronnie Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.04