2010 · Week 11

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

20·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.019
  • 40.5%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.126EPA / rush+0.030
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +2.13CPOE+1.85
  • 37.8%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.86
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
CLEQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:03728Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 8:081797Touchdown7–3
JAXQ2 13:11419Punt7–3
CLEQ2 11:01758Missed field goal7–3
JAXQ2 8:01216Turnover7–3
CLEQ2 7:243-5Punt7–3
JAXQ2 5:231368Touchdown7–10
CLEQ2 0:3000End of half7–10
JAXQ3 15:0043Punt7–10
CLEQ3 13:20412Punt13–10
JAXQ3 11:2618Opp touchdown14–10
JAXQ3 11:14722Turnover14–10
CLEQ3 7:253-4Punt14–10
JAXQ3 5:31524Turnover14–10
CLEQ3 3:223-1Field goal17–10
JAXQ3 1:50421Turnover17–10
CLEQ4 14:503-1Punt17–10
JAXQ4 13:33416Turnover17–10
CLEQ4 11:1832Missed field goal17–10
JAXQ4 9:471259Touchdown17–17
CLEQ4 3:34757Field goal20–17
JAXQ4 2:46587Touchdown20–24
CLEQ4 1:16551Turnover20–24
JAXQ4 0:0500End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy17/2824111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis21482.30
Colt McCoy4399.80
Mike Bell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peyton Hillis68951
Evan Moore33690
Mohamed Massaquoi49510
Chansi Stuckey44260
Robert Royal0100
Benjamin Watson0100
Brian Robiskie0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard20/3425423
Maurice Jones-Drew0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew231335.81
David Garrard393.00
Rashad Jennings231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Maurice Jones-Drew33870
Marcedes Lewis58661
Mike Thomas510361
Zach Miller34270
Kassim Osgood24220
Rashad Jennings1190
Tiquan Underwood1570

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.43