Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.019
- 40.5%Success rate44.9%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.126EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- +2.13CPOE+1.85
- 37.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.86
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 17/28 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 21 | 48 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Evan Moore | 3 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 20/34 | 254 | 2 | 3 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 133 | 5.8 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 87 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 5 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 5 | 10 | 36 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43