Closing spread
SD -9
Total
50
Model margin
+4.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/38 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 7 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.