Closing spread
SD -9
Total
50
Model margin
+4.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutAndre' GoodmanCBHip· DNP
- QuestionableDarcel McBathSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRobert AyersLBFoot· Limited
- DNPJamal WilliamsDTNot Injury Related
Chargers
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulSteve GregorySShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- QuestionableKris WilsonTEBack· DNP
- QuestionableTravis JohnsonDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableBrandon SilerLBFoot· Full
- ProbableMalcom FloydWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableNate KaedingKGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:40 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:14 | 8 | 34 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:10 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 13:14 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:36 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 7:58 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 5:57 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 4:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:59 | 2 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DEN | Q2 2:05 | 10 | 24 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| DEN | Q3 12:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 10:57 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–28 |
| DEN | Q3 7:48 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 5:45 | 11 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| DEN | Q4 14:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–35 |
| LAC | Q4 13:02 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–35 |
| DEN | Q4 11:27 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| LAC | Q4 8:48 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 14–35 |
| DEN | Q4 4:44 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 14–35 |
| LAC | Q4 2:19 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 14–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/38 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 7 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.