Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.002
- 40.5%Success rate43.2%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.37CPOE+2.25
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.67
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 32/47 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 8 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 10 | 46 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/24 | 147 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.42