2010 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

19·35

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.002
  • 40.5%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -3.37CPOE+2.25
  • 40.4%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.67
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DETQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:261488Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 5:101161Field goal3–7
DALQ2 14:503-4Punt3–7
DETQ2 13:06947Punt3–7
DALQ2 7:5335Punt3–7
DETQ2 5:201040Punt3–7
DALQ2 0:4818Turnover3–7
DETQ2 0:36314Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 0:1700End of half10–7
DALQ3 15:003-8Punt10–7
DETQ3 13:1836Punt12–7
DALQ3 11:3210Safety12–7
DETQ3 11:2400Opp touchdown12–7
DETQ3 11:1918Opp touchdown12–7
DETQ3 10:5446Opp touchdown12–14
DETQ3 9:1627Turnover12–14
DALQ3 8:40419Touchdown12–21
DETQ3 6:33680Touchdown19–21
DALQ3 4:101775Touchdown19–28
DETQ4 11:15714Punt19–28
DALQ4 7:571080Touchdown19–35
DETQ4 3:1732Turnover19–35
DALQ4 2:3333Punt19–35
DETQ4 1:03540End of half19–35

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill32/4728921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris10313.10
Nate Burleson11515.00
Aaron Brown199.00
Stefan Logan144.00
Jahvid Best320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson710971
Brandon Pettigrew89750
Calvin Johnson610461
Maurice Morris46400
Jahvid Best45150
Tony Scheffler11100
Aaron Brown2260

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna18/2414730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones11514.60
Jon Kitna44010.01
Marion Barber13362.80
Tashard Choice273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten45480
Felix Jones33350
Roy Williams22200
Marion Barber11150
Tashard Choice22140
Dez Bryant3481
Miles Austin2372
Chris Gronkowski1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.42