2010 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·3

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

45

Model margin

-0.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.112
  • 45.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.121
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +5.31CPOE-2.30
  • 41.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.25
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:3235Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:571077Field goal0–3
GBQ1 6:0663Punt0–3
MINQ1 2:21623Turnover0–3
GBQ2 14:4636Punt0–3
MINQ2 13:59413Punt0–3
GBQ2 12:20654Field goal3–3
MINQ2 9:4432Punt3–3
GBQ2 8:43880Touchdown10–3
MINQ2 5:14753Turnover10–3
GBQ2 1:03653Touchdown17–3
MINQ2 0:0500End of half17–3
GBQ3 15:00673Touchdown24–3
MINQ3 12:01852Punt24–3
GBQ3 7:39836Punt24–3
MINQ3 1:58420Punt24–3
GBQ3 0:553-5Punt24–3
MINQ4 14:1448Turnover on downs24–3
GBQ4 13:14642Touchdown31–3
MINQ4 9:42841Turnover on downs31–3
GBQ4 6:371027Turnover on downs31–3
MINQ4 0:24212End of half31–3

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3130140
Matt Flynn1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dimitri Nance12373.10
Brandon Jackson14282.00
Aaron Rodgers3217.00
Matt Flynn155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings791523
James Jones35511
Brandon Jackson44380
Donald Driver47310
Jordy Nelson33200
Andrew Quarless12140
Donald Lee1100
Brett Swain0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre17/3820801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson14725.10
Percy Harvin2189.00
Toby Gerhart133.00
Brett Favre100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice310560
Toby Gerhart35410
Greg Lewis24400
Greg Camarillo36270
Adrian Peterson14160
Percy Harvin25120
Visanthe Shiancoe2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.70