Closing spread
GB -3
Total
45
Model margin
-0.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.112
- 45.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.121
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- +5.31CPOE-2.30
- 41.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.91Points / drive1.25
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/31 | 301 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitri Nance | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 9 | 152 | 3 |
| James Jones | 3 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/38 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.70