2010 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.078
  • 44.3%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.118EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.7%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +2.60CPOE+4.09
  • 37.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.97
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:333-1Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:4137Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:251373Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 2:161484Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 9:1036Punt3–7
NYGQ2 7:2921Turnover3–7
PHIQ2 6:5533Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 5:372-2Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 4:4437Field goal3–13
NYGQ2 3:1155Punt3–13
PHIQ2 1:43771Missed field goal3–13
PHIQ3 15:001482Field goal3–16
NYGQ3 6:381147Touchdown10–16
PHIQ3 0:2744Turnover10–16
NYGQ4 14:15227Touchdown17–16
PHIQ4 13:35714Punt17–16
NYGQ4 10:18613Punt17–16
PHIQ4 7:52886Touchdown17–24
NYGQ4 4:2510Turnover17–24
NYGQ4 3:57420Turnover17–24
PHIQ4 2:51548Field goal17–27
NYGQ4 0:2226Turnover17–27
PHIQ4 0:0100End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3314723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw12292.40
Eli Manning22211.00
Brandon Jacobs5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks69650
Mario Manningham33240
Brandon Jacobs12220
Kevin Boss24220
Derek Hagan39101
Duke Calhoun1240
Bear Pascoe1130
Travis Beckum1121
Ahmad Bradshaw22-50

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick24/3825800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy141117.91
Mike Vick11343.11
DeSean Jackson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin9141200
DeSean Jackson510500
Jason Avant24390
LeSean McCoy55290
Clay Harbor1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.83