Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.078
- 44.3%Success rate44.2%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.118EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- +2.60CPOE+4.09
- 37.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.81Points / drive1.97
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/33 | 147 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 3 | 9 | 10 | 1 |
| Duke Calhoun | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 24/38 | 258 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 14 | 120 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.83