Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJohn HendersonDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableNnamdi AsomughaCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableZach MillerTEFoot· Limited
Steelers
- OutAaron SmithDETriceps· DNP
- OutWill AllenSConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableBrett KeiselDEHamstring· Full
- DNPNick EasonDEIllness
- DNPSteve McLendonDTIllness
- ProbableChris KemoeatuGAnkle· Full
- ProbableCrezdon ButlerCBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableHines WardWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableLawrence TimmonsLBHip· Full
- ProbableTroy PolamaluSAchilles· Full
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:17 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:50 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:33 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:35 | 14 | 96 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:29 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 11:43 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 7:31 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 4:01 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| PIT | Q2 2:49 | 4 | 35 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 1:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 2 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 12:43 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 11:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 11:02 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 8:59 | 9 | 3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 6:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 4:42 | 9 | 61 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 0:07 | 2 | 54 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| LV | Q4 14:49 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–28 |
| PIT | Q4 12:32 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 3–28 |
| LV | Q4 9:43 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–28 |
| PIT | Q4 7:16 | 6 | 59 | Turnover | 3–28 |
| LV | Q4 4:09 | 6 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 3–28 |
| PIT | Q4 3:36 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| LV | Q4 1:12 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 3–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/29 | 275 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 116 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.