Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/29 | 275 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 116 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.