2010 · Week 11

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

19·34

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -11

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSaints
  • -0.117EPA / play+0.039
  • 38.3%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.80CPOE+5.83
  • 37.0%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.88
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NO @ SEA13–44SEA
2022 · W5SEA @ NO32–39NO
2021 · W7NO @ SEA13–10NO
2019 · W3NO @ SEA33–27NO
2016 · W8SEA @ NO20–25NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ SEA15–23SEA
2013 · W13NO @ SEA7–34SEA
2010 · playoffsNO @ SEA36–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NO
SEAQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NOQ1 14:0239Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:43880Field goal3–0
NOQ1 7:071280Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 1:30445Field goal6–7
NOQ2 14:551080Touchdown6–14
SEAQ2 10:1730Punt6–14
NOQ2 9:54952Touchdown6–21
SEAQ2 5:481269Touchdown13–21
NOQ2 1:54659Touchdown13–27
SEAQ2 1:00555Field goal16–27
NOQ3 15:00680Touchdown16–34
SEAQ3 12:18226Turnover16–34
NOQ3 11:411048Turnover16–34
SEAQ3 6:531055Turnover16–34
NOQ3 1:04847Missed field goal16–34
SEAQ4 12:281371Field goal19–34
NOQ4 5:261139Turnover19–34
SEAQ4 0:21111End of half19–34

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck32/4436610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch7365.10
Matt Hasselbeck11212.00
Justin Forsett8101.30
Leon Washington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams671090
Ben Obomanu56871
Brandon Stokley66760
Justin Forsett56330
Marshawn Lynch46190
Deon Butler24190
John Carlson34140
Leon Washington1190
Chris Baker0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4338242

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory23994.31
Robert Meachem188.00
Julius Jones441.00
Devery Henderson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston8111132
Jimmy Graham58720
Robert Meachem33502
Lance Moore34430
Ladell Betts34370
David Thomas26260
Devery Henderson11170
Tory Humphrey11120
Julius Jones2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.37