Closing spread
NO -11
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play+0.039
- 38.3%Success rate46.2%
- -0.072EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.80CPOE+5.83
- 37.0%Third-down rate48.8%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.36Points / drive1.88
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NO are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 32/44 | 366 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 5 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/43 | 382 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 11 | 113 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 3 | 50 | 2 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tory Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.37