2010 · Week 11
Final
Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 25mph
Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.055
- 42.0%Success rate38.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.31CPOE-4.51
- 42.5%Third-down rate33.2%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.88Points / drive1.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 13/20 | 136 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 26 | 82 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 16/31 | 148 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04