2010 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

21·0

49ers

San Francisco

QB Troy Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge map49ers
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.055
  • 42.0%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.102
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.31CPOE-4.51
  • 42.5%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.30
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SF
TBQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:11517Turnover0–0
TBQ1 8:5631Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:5136Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:1849Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 4:1159Punt0–0
TBQ1 1:331480Touchdown7–0
SFQ2 9:0237Punt7–0
TBQ2 7:39517Punt7–0
SFQ2 4:47625Punt7–0
TBQ2 1:23314End of half7–0
SFQ3 15:00840Punt7–0
TBQ3 11:481271Missed field goal7–0
SFQ3 5:1138Punt7–0
TBQ3 3:36566Touchdown14–0
SFQ3 0:41718Turnover on downs14–0
TBQ4 13:153-4Punt14–0
SFQ4 11:2326Turnover14–0
TBQ4 10:3554Touchdown21–0
SFQ4 8:18830Turnover on downs21–0
TBQ4 6:19627Punt21–0
SFQ4 3:01923Turnover on downs21–0
TBQ4 0:3800End of half21–0

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman13/2013620
Josh Johnson1/1700
Micheal Spurlock0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount26823.20
Cadillac Williams7517.31
Josh Freeman5153.00
Earnest Graham372.30
Josh Johnson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams33541
Kellen Winslow48340
Maurice Stovall12220
Arrelious Benn23140
Sammie Stroughter23110
Cadillac Williams1170
Earnest Graham0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Smith16/3114801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Smith5459.00
Frank Gore12231.90
Delanie Walker133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Morgan46510
Frank Gore58370
Delanie Walker34270
Michael Crabtree12150
Kyle Williams1180
Ted Ginn1470
Vernon Davis1330
Dominique Zeigler0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04