2025 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.006
- 48.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.72CPOE-2.55
- 50.4%Third-down rate41.0%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.48Points / drive1.89
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 27/39 | 347 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 9 | 142 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/23 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kameron Johnson | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.36
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.27