2025 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

19·30

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.006
  • 48.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.72CPOE-2.55
  • 50.4%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.89
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TB
TBQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:0036Turnover0–0
TBQ1 10:37212Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 9:54436Field goal3–7
TBQ1 7:5443Punt3–7
SFQ1 5:57614Punt3–7
TBQ1 1:3443Punt3–7
SFQ1 0:021180Touchdown10–7
TBQ2 10:18868Touchdown10–14
SFQ2 5:10627Field goal13–14
TBQ2 2:05572Touchdown13–20
SFQ2 0:44547Field goal16–20
TBQ2 0:0200End of half16–20
SFQ3 15:001480Field goal19–20
TBQ3 7:27976Touchdown19–27
SFQ3 2:40829Punt19–27
TBQ4 13:13755Missed field goal19–27
SFQ4 8:41827Turnover19–27
TBQ4 5:43738Field goal19–30
SFQ4 1:55417Turnover on downs19–30
TBQ4 0:3500End of half19–30

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones27/3934702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey17543.21
Mac Jones5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne591420
Jake Tonges67580
Christian McCaffrey78570
Demarcus Robinson23440
Marquez Valdes-Scantling23220
Brian Robinson3380
Jauan Jennings1370

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/2325620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White17653.81
Sean Tucker6254.21
Baker Mayfield3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kameron Johnson44641
Sterling Shepard23510
Cade Otton56510
Tez Johnson13451
Emeka Egbuka24240
Rachaad White33210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.36
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.27