2013 · Week 15

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

33·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

-1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.8%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.147
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.63CPOE-1.72
  • 37.8%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.34
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TB
TBQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SFQ1 14:011167Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 7:0536Punt7–0
SFQ1 5:3038Punt7–0
TBQ1 3:32514Punt7–0
SFQ1 0:35535Punt7–0
TBQ2 12:433-10Punt7–0
SFQ2 10:57933Field goal10–0
TBQ2 6:12517Punt10–0
SFQ2 3:39581Touchdown17–0
TBQ2 1:47768Touchdown17–7
SFQ2 0:2913End of half17–7
SFQ3 15:00618Punt17–7
TBQ3 12:41413Punt17–7
SFQ3 10:50724Field goal20–7
TBQ3 7:513-4Punt20–7
SFQ3 6:20414Punt20–7
TBQ3 3:551092Touchdown20–14
SFQ4 14:541787Field goal29–14
TBQ4 4:2700Touchdown30–14
TBQ4 4:2140Turnover on downs30–14
SFQ4 3:4439Field goal33–14
TBQ4 2:494-16Turnover33–14
SFQ4 1:5300End of half33–14

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick19/2920320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore22863.90
Colin Kaepernick44210.50
Kendall Hunter8405.00
LaMichael James22211.00
Anquan Boldin100.00
Colt McCoy3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis57791
Michael Crabtree56451
Anquan Boldin38430
Garrett Celek1180
Mario Manningham1220

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon18/3417921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey11272.50
Brian Leonard11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Timothy Wright79821
Vincent Jackson58581
Chris Owusu35210
Tiquan Underwood25150
Bobby Rainey1130
Brian Leonard0200
Eric Page0100
Skye Dawson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.30