2013 · Week 15
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.089
- 41.8%Success rate37.6%
- +0.156EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.147
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.63CPOE-1.72
- 37.8%Third-down rate31.1%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.99Points / drive1.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 19/29 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 18/34 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Wright | 7 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Chris Owusu | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Page | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skye Dawson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.30