2019 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

31·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

51

Model margin

+1.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.000
  • 44.8%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.168
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +2.34CPOE+0.42
  • 45.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.86
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TB
TBQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:28632Field goal3–0
TBQ1 11:081018Punt3–0
SFQ1 7:32420Punt3–0
TBQ1 5:011777Turnover3–0
SFQ2 11:51614Opp touchdown3–7
SFQ2 8:411358Field goal6–7
TBQ2 2:5510Turnover6–7
SFQ2 2:4964Turnover6–7
TBQ2 0:1000End of half6–7
SFQ3 15:00852Touchdown13–7
TBQ3 12:3120Opp touchdown20–7
TBQ3 11:441175Touchdown20–14
SFQ3 5:43736Missed field goal20–14
TBQ3 2:38959Turnover on downs20–14
SFQ4 13:04711Punt20–14
TBQ4 8:21623Field goal20–17
SFQ4 4:47731Field goal23–17
TBQ4 2:1710Opp touchdown31–17
TBQ4 2:01838Turnover on downs31–17
SFQ4 0:5100End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2716611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert9404.40
Matt Breida15372.50
Tevin Coleman6233.80
Jimmy Garoppolo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle810540
Richie James12391
Tevin Coleman23330
Deebo Samuel Sr.33170
Kendrick Bourne1390
Marquise Goodwin1370
Dante Pettis1170
Raheem Mostert1100
Matt Breida0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston20/3619413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones13755.80
Peyton Barber8334.10
Jameis Winston5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.36531
Dare Ogunbowale45330
O.J. Howard45320
Mike Evans25280
Ronald Jones11180
Peyton Barber24120
Breshad Perriman25100
Cameron Brate2280
Bobo Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.88