2019 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
51
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.000
- 44.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.168
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- +2.34CPOE+0.42
- 45.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 2.28Points / drive1.86
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/27 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 8 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 20/36 | 194 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88