2018 · Week 12
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.045
- 44.8%Success rate44.9%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.229
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- -2.68CPOE+3.11
- 37.2%Third-down rate46.7%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.66Points / drive1.93
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 18/32 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 14 | 106 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 4 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 13 | 48 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 29/38 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+2.05