2018 · Week 12

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

9·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -1.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.045
  • 44.8%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.229
  • 11.4%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -2.68CPOE+3.11
  • 37.2%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.93
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TB
TBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:35428Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:11778Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 8:2133Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:563-3Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:5546Punt0–7
TBQ1 3:43945Punt0–7
SFQ2 14:141084Touchdown6–7
TBQ2 8:321153Field goal6–10
SFQ2 3:217-4Punt6–10
TBQ2 1:43843Field goal6–13
SFQ2 0:0600End of half6–13
SFQ3 15:001078Field goal9–13
TBQ3 11:02752Touchdown9–20
SFQ3 8:25935Punt9–20
TBQ3 4:101085Touchdown9–27
SFQ4 14:1042Punt9–27
TBQ4 12:05423Punt9–27
SFQ4 10:01559Turnover9–27
TBQ4 7:43929Punt9–27
SFQ4 3:05752Turnover9–27
TBQ4 1:1700End of half9–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens18/3222112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida141067.60
Jeff Wilson7334.70
George Kittle11010.00
Nick Mullens2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Pettis47771
George Kittle613480
Matt Breida34340
Kendrick Bourne23270
Richie James22270
Jeff Wilson1180

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston29/3831220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber18472.61
Jacquizz Rodgers5316.20
Jameis Winston7243.40
DeSean Jackson166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans681160
Adam Humphries66541
Chris Godwin Jr.44420
Jacquizz Rodgers45310
Cameron Brate34261
DeSean Jackson38190
Peyton Barber22160
Antony Auclair1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+2.05