2016 · Week 7
Final
Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
SF -1
Total
45
Model margin
-1.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.089
- 43.9%Success rate39.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.169
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.81CPOE-5.73
- 44.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.74Points / drive1.59
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/30 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 26 | 154 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 13 | 96 | 2 |
| Russell Shepard | 5 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/34 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-1.23