2016 · Week 7

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

34·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

45

Model margin

-1.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge map49ers
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.089
  • 43.9%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.169
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.81CPOE-5.73
  • 44.2%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.59
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SF
SFQ1 15:00660Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 13:02737Turnover on downs0–7
SFQ1 9:0233Punt0–7
TBQ1 8:01648Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:38721Punt0–7
TBQ1 1:1335Turnover0–13
SFQ1 0:16117Touchdown0–14
TBQ1 0:081188Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 10:14736Turnover7–14
TBQ2 7:38568Field goal10–14
SFQ2 4:59519Punt10–14
TBQ2 2:34862Touchdown17–14
SFQ2 0:48517Punt17–14
TBQ2 0:0700End of half17–14
TBQ3 15:003-1Punt17–14
TBQ3 12:58417Field goal20–14
SFQ3 10:57611Turnover20–14
TBQ3 8:27627Touchdown27–14
SFQ3 6:24718Punt27–14
TBQ3 4:041069Missed field goal27–14
SFQ4 14:121445Field goal27–17
TBQ4 8:08677Touchdown34–17
SFQ4 4:4257Punt34–17
TBQ4 2:48517Punt34–17
SFQ4 1:09419End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/3026931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers261545.90
Peyton Barber12847.01
Antone Smith166.00
Adam Humphries166.00
Jameis Winston1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans813962
Russell Shepard56771
Antone Smith23410
Cameron Brate33290
Adam Humphries23170
Jacquizz Rodgers1190

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/3414311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick9849.30
DuJuan Harris11393.50
Mike Davis7213.01
Shaun Draughn11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shaun Draughn57371
Vance McDonald16240
DuJuan Harris22180
Torrey Smith12170
Jeremy Kerley25150
Aaron Burbridge12150
Quinton Patton34130
Garrett Celek1340
Rod Streater0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin-1.23