2022 · Week 14
Final
Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.084
- 44.0%Success rate46.1%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.021
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.30CPOE-1.99
- 38.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.63Points / drive2.20
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/55 | 253 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 16/21 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 119 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Danny Gray | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.66