2022 · Week 14

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

7·35

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge map49ers
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.0%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.021
  • 6.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.30CPOE-1.99
  • 38.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.20
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SF
SFQ1 15:00652Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 12:26940Missed field goal0–7
SFQ1 8:0945Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:26410Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:43955Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 14:5537Punt0–14
SFQ2 13:10971Touchdown0–21
TBQ2 7:4934Punt0–21
SFQ2 6:45521Turnover0–21
TBQ2 5:05851Turnover on downs0–21
SFQ2 2:29886Touchdown0–28
TBQ2 0:1500End of half0–28
TBQ3 15:0035Turnover0–28
SFQ3 14:13238Touchdown0–35
TBQ3 14:011246Turnover0–35
SFQ3 9:4433Punt0–35
TBQ3 7:141379Touchdown7–35
SFQ3 2:48630Punt7–35
TBQ4 13:311672Turnover on downs7–35
SFQ4 8:40631Turnover on downs7–35
TBQ4 4:4849Turnover7–35
SFQ4 3:29413End of half7–35

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/5525312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White13564.30
Leonard Fournette4133.30
Tom Brady200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.59540
Mike Evans49440
Julio Jones58380
Leonard Fournette67330
Cade Otton45280
Rachaad White55210
Cameron Brate24120
Russell Gage22121
Ko Kieft11110
Scott Miller0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy16/2118520
Josh Johnson1/21000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey141198.51
Jordan Mason11565.10
Deebo Samuel Sr.4215.31
Ray-Ray McCloud372.30
Josh Johnson231.50
Brock Purdy231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk23571
Deebo Samuel Sr.45430
Christian McCaffrey23341
George Kittle45280
Ray-Ray McCloud11110
Danny Gray11100
Jauan Jennings1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.23
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.66