2023 · Week 11
Final
Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
SF -13.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.179
- 40.5%Success rate51.6%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.166EPA / rush+0.034
- 8.6%Explosive rate13.8%
- +0.25CPOE+4.51
- 42.2%Third-down rate48.1%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.69
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 29/45 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 12 | 43 | 1 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/25 | 333 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 21 | 78 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 6 | 156 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 8 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13