2023 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

14·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -13.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge map49ers
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.179
  • 40.5%Success rate51.6%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.166EPA / rush+0.034
  • 8.6%Explosive rate13.8%
  • +0.25CPOE+4.51
  • 42.2%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.69
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SF
SFQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:0533Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:061380Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 3:551143Turnover0–7
SFQ2 12:57846Field goal0–10
TBQ2 7:211170Touchdown7–10
SFQ2 1:48761Field goal7–13
TBQ2 0:1600End of half7–13
TBQ3 15:00519Punt7–13
SFQ3 12:28398Touchdown7–20
TBQ3 10:54723Punt7–20
SFQ3 7:00979Touchdown7–27
TBQ3 1:42653Touchdown14–27
SFQ4 14:1638Punt14–27
TBQ4 12:251768Turnover on downs14–27
SFQ4 6:3933Punt14–27
TBQ4 4:1234Turnover14–27
SFQ4 3:38733Turnover on downs14–27
TBQ4 2:1375Turnover on downs14–27
SFQ4 1:0200End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield29/4524611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White9303.31
Deven Thompkins11717.00
Chase Edmonds482.00
Trey Palmer166.00
Baker Mayfield351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton45490
Mike Evans512431
Rakim Jarrett12410
Chris Godwin Jr.67390
Rachaad White67280
Trey Palmer46220
Payne Durham22130
Chase Edmonds11110
Deven Thompkins0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy21/2533330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey21783.70
Elijah Mitchell4246.00
Brock Purdy4143.50
Deebo Samuel Sr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk561561
George Kittle89891
Deebo Samuel Sr.34630
Christian McCaffrey55251
Jauan Jennings0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.13