2024 · Week 10

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

23·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.133
  • 46.0%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.059EPA / rush+0.012
  • 10.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.77CPOE+3.56
  • 43.1%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.71
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF
2011 · W5TB @ SF3–48SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–TB
SFQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:03627Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:06766Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 4:15416Punt7–0
SFQ1 2:071467Field goal10–0
TBQ2 8:531258Field goal10–3
SFQ2 1:14437Missed field goal10–3
TBQ2 0:2530Punt10–3
SFQ2 0:0800End of half10–3
TBQ3 15:0036Punt10–3
TBQ3 13:55421Touchdown10–10
SFQ3 11:581250Field goal13–10
TBQ3 4:211070Touchdown13–17
SFQ4 14:18438Missed field goal13–17
TBQ4 11:5034Punt13–17
SFQ4 10:17752Touchdown20–17
TBQ4 7:023-9Punt20–17
SFQ4 4:57434Missed field goal20–17
TBQ4 3:091322Field goal20–20
SFQ4 0:41439Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy25/3635320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13393.00
Brock Purdy4174.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.3144.70
Jordan Mason155.00
Isaac Guerendo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings711930
Ricky Pearsall46731
Christian McCaffrey67680
Deebo Samuel Sr.56620
George Kittle34571

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/2911610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving13735.61
Rachaad White10313.10
Sterling Shepard133.00
Baker Mayfield331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rachaad White67391
Cade Otton58350
Bucky Irving33140
Ryan Miller13110
Rakim Jarrett24100
Sterling Shepard1370
Trey Palmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+4.85