2024 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.133
- 46.0%Success rate49.4%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.059EPA / rush+0.012
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.77CPOE+3.56
- 43.1%Third-down rate50.8%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.24Points / drive2.71
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/36 | 353 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/29 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+4.85