Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 17/30 | 307 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 24 | 85 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 6 | 9 | 111 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Roberto Wallace | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeron Mastrud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.