2010 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

33·17

Raiders

Oakland

QB Bruce Gradkowski

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

OAK -3

Total

38

Model margin

+3.2est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1MIA @ LV13–27RAIDERS
2024 · W11LV @ MIA19–34MIA
2023 · W11LV @ MIA13–20MIA
2021 · W3MIA @ LV28–31RAIDERS
2020 · W16MIA @ LV26–25MIA
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2014 · W4MIA @ OAK38–14MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–OAK
LVQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 14:47429Field goal3–7
LVQ1 12:4036Punt3–7
MIAQ1 10:16865Touchdown10–7
LVQ1 5:36423Punt10–7
MIAQ1 3:151376Turnover10–7
LVQ2 11:38428Turnover10–7
MIAQ2 9:403-9Punt10–7
LVQ2 8:5624Turnover10–7
MIAQ2 8:053-7Missed field goal10–7
LVQ2 6:49458Touchdown10–14
MIAQ2 5:321580Field goal13–14
LVQ2 0:0400End of half13–14
MIAQ3 15:00572Touchdown20–14
LVQ3 12:5230Punt20–14
MIAQ3 11:34423Field goal23–14
LVQ3 8:4635Punt23–14
MIAQ3 7:0874Missed field goal23–14
LVQ3 3:56425Turnover23–14
MIAQ3 1:48623Punt23–14
LVQ4 13:08558Field goal23–17
MIAQ4 10:571273Field goal26–17
LVQ4 4:03723Turnover on downs26–17
MIAQ4 3:28246Touchdown33–17
LVQ4 3:12733Turnover on downs33–17
MIAQ4 1:4800End of half33–17

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne17/3030721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams20954.81
Ronnie Brown24853.50
Tyler Thigpen188.00
Chad Henne3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess691110
Brian Hartline47750
Marlon Moore14571
Patrick Cobbs23321
Roberto Wallace11190
Anthony Fasano22100
Ricky Williams1230
Jeron Mastrud0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.19

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.