2010 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.079
- 42.3%Success rate40.8%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.148
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.30CPOE-4.10
- 34.1%Third-down rate29.2%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.25Points / drive1.31
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/23 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/35 | 211 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Davis | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| James Davis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59