2010 · Week 12

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

17·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.079
  • 42.3%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.148
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -2.30CPOE-4.10
  • 34.1%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.31
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–WAS
WASQ1 15:001388Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:07771Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 3:2135Punt7–7
MINQ1 1:11726Punt7–7
WASQ2 12:29625Punt7–7
MINQ2 10:13621Punt7–7
WASQ2 6:35841Punt7–7
MINQ2 1:47517Punt7–7
WASQ2 0:482-9End of half7–7
MINQ3 15:001069Touchdown14–7
WASQ3 9:483-2Punt14–7
MINQ3 8:4538Punt14–7
WASQ3 7:14613Punt14–7
MINQ3 4:05426Punt14–7
WASQ3 2:0510Turnover14–7
MINQ3 1:593-4Field goal17–7
WASQ3 0:5237Field goal17–10
MINQ4 13:3439Punt17–10
WASQ4 11:45446Field goal17–13
MINQ4 10:02314Punt17–13
WASQ4 6:5432Punt17–13
MINQ4 6:131045End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre15/2317200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart22763.51
Adrian Peterson6366.01
Percy Harvin3144.70
Brett Favre591.80
Jeff Dugan221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Visanthe Shiancoe36540
Adrian Peterson11340
Percy Harvin55320
Sidney Rice14200
Greg Camarillo12120
Greg Lewis1280
Toby Gerhart2250

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb21/3521111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Davis6111.80
Donovan McNabb273.50
Brandon Banks263.00
Keiland Williams351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong27530
Chris Cooley58490
Santana Moss57400
Fred Davis33251
Keiland Williams46210
Roydell Williams11190
James Davis1240
Brandon Banks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.59