Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.002
- 46.2%Success rate43.2%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.83CPOE+2.25
- 48.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.88Points / drive1.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/39 | 352 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 5 | 97 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 55 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 30/42 | 313 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 1 | 60 | 60.0 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 10 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 5 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75