2010 · Week 12

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

30·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

NO -4.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.002
  • 46.2%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.83CPOE+2.25
  • 48.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.67
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DAL
NOQ1 15:00686Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 13:09516Turnover7–0
NOQ1 10:423-1Field goal10–0
DALQ1 9:1134Punt10–0
NOQ1 7:32658Touchdown17–0
DALQ1 4:331159Turnover on downs17–0
NOQ2 14:2435Punt17–0
DALQ2 12:541381Field goal17–3
NOQ2 5:131364Field goal20–3
DALQ2 0:43535Field goal20–6
DALQ3 15:00268Touchdown20–13
NOQ3 14:011070Field goal23–13
DALQ3 9:30424Punt23–13
DALQ3 7:25615Touchdown23–20
NOQ3 4:301046Turnover on downs23–20
DALQ3 0:19930Turnover23–20
NOQ4 10:5734Turnover23–20
DALQ4 9:55739Touchdown23–27
NOQ4 5:513-4Punt23–27
DALQ4 4:10351Turnover23–27
NOQ4 3:03589Touchdown30–27
DALQ4 1:55935Missed field goal30–27
NOQ4 0:2500End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3935211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones10454.50
Chris Ivory7385.42
Reggie Bush111.00
Drew Brees3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston691050
Devery Henderson45970
Robert Meachem11550
Lance Moore57391
Jimmy Graham37230
Julius Jones33210
Reggie Bush13120
David Thomas0400

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna30/4231301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Austin16060.01
Felix Jones13443.40
Jon Kitna5204.00
Marion Barber10191.91
Tashard Choice111.01
Dez Bryant100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten1010990
Roy Williams58830
Felix Jones77690
Miles Austin35250
Martellus Bennett23170
Sam Hurd11120
Marion Barber2280
Dez Bryant0600

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.75