2010 · Week 12

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

26·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bears

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.097
  • 44.2%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback-0.053
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.166
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.09CPOE+0.87
  • 39.7%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.43
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
PHIQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:5430Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:15523Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 8:51479Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 6:5635Punt3–7
CHIQ1 4:38459Touchdown3–14
PHIQ1 2:251065Touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 13:183-10Punt10–14
PHIQ2 11:33741Field goal13–14
CHIQ2 8:083-11Punt13–14
PHIQ2 6:15842Turnover13–14
CHIQ2 1:50663Touchdown13–21
PHIQ2 0:38527End of half13–21
CHIQ3 15:00345Touchdown13–28
PHIQ3 13:2934Punt13–28
CHIQ3 11:311789Field goal13–31
PHIQ3 1:261067Field goal16–31
CHIQ4 11:51536Punt16–31
PHIQ4 8:19753Field goal19–31
CHIQ4 4:4731Punt19–31
PHIQ4 4:18978Touchdown26–31
CHIQ4 1:4800End of half26–31

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick29/4433321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy10535.30
Mike Vick9444.90
Eldra Buckley133.00
DeSean Jackson133.00
Jerome Harrison122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant89830
LeSean McCoy89670
Brent Celek38501
Jeremy Maclin46471
Riley Cooper12290
Clay Harbor22270
DeSean Jackson25260
Jerome Harrison1140

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler14/2124740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte141178.40
Jay Cutler7172.40
Devin Hester100.00
Chester Taylor6-3-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester36860
Johnny Knox35681
Earl Bennett45562
Matt Forte23220
Greg Olsen1191
Brandon Manumaleuna1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.21