Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.097
- 44.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.104EPA / dropback-0.053
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.166
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.09CPOE+0.87
- 39.7%Third-down rate33.1%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.97Points / drive1.43
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 29/44 | 333 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 8 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 14/21 | 247 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 14 | 117 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 3 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 5 | 56 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Brandon Manumaleuna | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.21