2010 · Week 12 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Troy Smith

27·6

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Derek Anderson

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.220
  • 38.8%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback-0.248
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.165
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.51CPOE-9.59
  • 33.2%Third-down rate27.4%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.06
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:001055Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 9:4810Turnover6–0
SFQ1 9:42138Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:35655Field goal7–3
SFQ1 5:561149Touchdown14–3
ARIQ1 0:2939Punt14–3
SFQ2 13:2536Punt14–3
ARIQ2 11:1632Punt14–3
SFQ2 10:07642Touchdown21–3
ARIQ2 7:231050Field goal21–6
SFQ2 2:16313Turnover21–6
ARIQ2 1:1330Punt21–6
SFQ2 0:48210End of half21–6
ARIQ3 15:0032Punt21–6
SFQ3 13:15842Missed field goal21–6
ARIQ3 8:2933Punt21–6
SFQ3 6:31644Field goal24–6
ARIQ3 2:38323Turnover24–6
SFQ3 1:461042Field goal27–6
ARIQ4 12:431059Turnover on downs27–6
SFQ4 9:14724Punt27–6
ARIQ4 4:1830Punt27–6
SFQ4 3:53522End of half27–6

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Smith11/2312911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook231365.91
Anthony Dixon14543.91
Frank Gore55210.40
Josh Morgan11313.00
Troy Smith362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree26481
Vernon Davis24320
Josh Morgan35280
Ted Ginn11110
Dominique Zeigler11100
Frank Gore0100
Delanie Walker0100
Anthony Dixon11-50

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson16/3519601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells5132.60
Derek Anderson100.00
Tim Hightower500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Early Doucet510600
Chris Wells11430
Larry Fitzgerald49370
Steve Breaston25220
Andre Roberts22210
LaRod Stephens-Howling22130
Stephen Spach0100
Tim Hightower0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.52