Closing spread
SF -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.220
- 38.8%Success rate37.1%
- -0.024EPA / dropback-0.248
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.165
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.51CPOE-9.59
- 33.2%Third-down rate27.4%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.30Points / drive1.06
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 11/23 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 23 | 136 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 16/35 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Doucet | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.52