2010 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Rusty Smith

0·20

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.107
  • 40.0%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.153EPA / rush+0.039
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.87CPOE+0.65
  • 34.8%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive2.09
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00940Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 11:1035Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:16838Punt0–0
TENQ1 5:1339Punt0–0
HOUQ1 3:42522Punt0–0
TENQ1 0:082-2Turnover0–0
HOUQ2 14:49425Touchdown0–7
TENQ2 12:47613Punt0–7
HOUQ2 9:48971Touchdown0–14
TENQ2 4:42729Punt0–14
HOUQ2 1:28712End of half0–14
TENQ3 15:003-3Punt0–14
HOUQ3 13:291140Field goal0–17
TENQ3 8:0549Punt0–17
HOUQ3 5:13622Punt0–17
TENQ3 1:51614Punt0–17
HOUQ4 14:4133Punt0–17
TENQ4 13:11412Turnover0–17
HOUQ4 11:271475Field goal0–20
TENQ4 3:00976Turnover0–20
HOUQ4 0:5500End of half0–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rusty Smith17/3113803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javon Ringer4276.80
Chris Johnson750.70
Nate Washington1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Gage46500
Jared Cook49400
Randy Moss35230
Nate Washington14100
Bo Scaife12100
Javon Ringer1140
Chris Johnson2320

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub25/3517820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster301434.80
Derrick Ward7476.70
Matt Schaub2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arian Foster911750
Andre Johnson911561
Joel Dreessen35151
Jacoby Jones23130
Kevin Walter12120
James Casey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.9%

Expected total

48.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.79