Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.107
- 40.0%Success rate47.5%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.153EPA / rush+0.039
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.87CPOE+0.65
- 34.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.83Points / drive2.09
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rusty Smith | 17/31 | 138 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Ringer | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gage | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/35 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 30 | 143 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 9 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 11 | 56 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
48.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.79