Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play-0.117
- 33.5%Success rate38.3%
- -0.274EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.194
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -7.94CPOE-1.80
- 30.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 0.77Points / drive1.36
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 18/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mike Goodson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/30 | 229 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Morrah | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02