2010 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

14·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.249EPA / play-0.117
  • 33.5%Success rate38.3%
  • -0.274EPA / dropback-0.072
  • -0.215EPA / rush-0.194
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -7.94CPOE-1.80
  • 30.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 44.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 0.77Points / drive1.36
  • 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SEA
CARQ1 15:001061Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 10:5138Punt7–0
CARQ1 8:51843Punt7–0
SEAQ1 4:3130Punt7–0
CARQ1 3:39619Punt7–0
SEAQ1 1:00620Punt7–0
CARQ2 13:051074Touchdown14–0
SEAQ2 8:05847Turnover14–0
CARQ2 4:1436Punt14–0
SEAQ2 3:141176Field goal14–3
CARQ2 0:381-8End of half14–3
SEAQ3 15:001081Touchdown14–10
CARQ3 10:4639Opp touchdown14–17
CARQ3 9:18512Punt14–17
SEAQ3 6:5022Touchdown14–24
CARQ3 6:0933Punt14–24
SEAQ3 4:16211Turnover14–24
CARQ3 3:093-5Punt14–24
SEAQ3 1:551349Missed field goal14–24
CARQ4 10:4647Punt14–24
SEAQ4 8:55878Touchdown14–31
CARQ4 4:241462Turnover on downs14–31
SEAQ4 0:3400End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen18/3416901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart21924.41
Mike Goodson3196.31
Tyrell Sutton4174.30
Jimmy Clausen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith310540
Brandon LaFell37330
Dante Rosario35260
David Gettis23160
Tyrell Sutton33140
Jonathan Stewart1170
Jeff King1220

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck17/3022902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21834.03
Justin Forsett66010.00
Leon Washington252.50
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Morrah34690
Brandon Stokley45470
Deon Butler47430
Ben Obomanu24400
Marshawn Lynch11170
Golden Tate26130
Justin Forsett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02