2025 · Week 17

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

27·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.025
  • 46.6%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.072
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.54CPOE+1.44
  • 40.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.80
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
CARQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:08630Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:4035Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:27835Field goal3–0
CARQ1 3:2331Punt3–0
SEAQ1 1:54626Punt3–0
CARQ2 13:231227Turnover on downs3–0
SEAQ2 6:5530Turnover3–0
CARQ2 5:1939Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 3:46831Turnover on downs3–3
CARQ2 0:17311End of half3–3
SEAQ3 15:00642Turnover3–3
CARQ3 12:0611Turnover3–3
SEAQ3 12:01621Touchdown10–3
CARQ3 8:4536Turnover10–3
SEAQ3 7:41429Touchdown17–3
CARQ3 5:321369Touchdown17–10
SEAQ4 13:411350Field goal20–10
CARQ4 5:334-2Turnover on downs20–10
SEAQ4 3:40525Touchdown27–10
CARQ4 2:3113Turnover on downs27–10
SEAQ4 0:3400End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/2714711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet181106.12
Kenneth Walker III15513.40
Sam Darnold320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba912720
AJ Barner33431
Zach Charbonnet22120
Rashid Shaheed1180
Cooper Kupp1360
Kenneth Walker III2260
Eric Saubert0200
Dareke Young0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young14/245401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle12594.90
Bryce Young9273.01
Chuba Hubbard4123.00
Mitchell Evans111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker22160
Jimmy Horn Jr.2290
Chuba Hubbard3360
Tommy Tremble1160
Tetairoa McMillan1450
Mitchell Evans1250
Rico Dowdle3540
Xavier Legette1130
Brycen Tremayne0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.37