Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.025
- 46.6%Success rate43.7%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.54CPOE+1.44
- 40.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.22Points / drive1.80
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/27 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 9 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dareke Young | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 14/24 | 54 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.37