Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.067
- 44.2%Success rate48.0%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.027EPA / rush+0.033
- 11.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +7.30CPOE+2.75
- 38.7%Third-down rate42.1%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 2.23Points / drive2.20
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/31 | 339 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 107 | 1 |
| David Moore | 4 | 5 | 103 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/30 | 256 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 125 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 11 | 112 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 8 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.62