2018 · Week 12

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

30·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.067
  • 44.2%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.027EPA / rush+0.033
  • 11.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +7.30CPOE+2.75
  • 38.7%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.20
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
SEAQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:571057Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 7:15419Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:32558Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 2:111165Field goal3–3
CARQ2 12:4138Punt3–3
SEAQ2 10:2732Punt3–3
CARQ2 8:27453Touchdown3–10
SEAQ2 6:15775Touchdown10–10
CARQ2 2:24760Field goal10–13
CARQ3 15:00958Turnover10–13
SEAQ3 10:39780Touchdown17–13
CARQ3 6:45962Touchdown17–20
SEAQ3 1:411448Field goal20–20
CARQ4 9:27575Touchdown20–27
SEAQ4 6:57770Touchdown27–27
CARQ4 3:26745Missed field goal27–27
SEAQ4 1:40348Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3133920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson16553.41
Mike Davis4143.50
Russell Wilson341.30
Rashaad Penny441.00
Tyler Lockett1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett551071
David Moore451031
Doug Baldwin57390
Nick Vannett22220
Malik Turner12190
Ed Dickson22130
Chris Carson2280
Jaron Brown0100
Mike Davis0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/3025621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey171257.41
Cam Newton8637.90
Curtis Samuel12525.00
DJ Moore177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey11111121
DJ Moore89910
Jarius Wright22250
Curtis Samuel22171
Greg Olsen24110
Chris Manhertz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.62