2016 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

7·40

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -8.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.048EPA / play+0.022
  • 40.9%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -4.49CPOE+4.81
  • 36.5%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SEA
CARQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 14:4633Field goal0–3
CARQ1 13:2368Punt0–3
SEAQ1 10:37992Touchdown0–10
CARQ1 6:42634Punt0–10
SEAQ1 2:47933Turnover on downs0–10
CARQ2 13:2514Turnover0–10
SEAQ2 13:163-9Turnover0–10
CARQ2 11:58458Touchdown7–10
SEAQ2 10:32257Touchdown7–17
CARQ2 9:44411Punt7–17
SEAQ2 7:281061Field goal7–20
CARQ2 1:4530Punt7–20
SEAQ2 1:19872Field goal7–23
CARQ2 0:0700End of half7–23
SEAQ3 15:00175Touchdown7–30
CARQ3 14:48937Punt7–30
SEAQ3 10:08614Punt7–30
CARQ3 6:151359Turnover on downs7–30
SEAQ3 1:241074Touchdown7–37
CARQ4 11:09529Punt7–37
SEAQ4 9:281062Field goal7–40
CARQ4 3:28631End of half7–40

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton14/3218210
Derek Anderson0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart11504.50
Cam Newton3124.00
Ted Ginn166.00
Fozzy Whittaker133.00
Corey Brown1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn56801
Devin Funchess24440
Greg Olsen37300
Kelvin Benjamin29180
Brenton Bersin1170
Jonathan Stewart1130
Ed Dickson0100
Corey Brown0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson26/3627711
Trevone Boykin2/33800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls151067.12
Tyler Lockett17575.01
Russell Wilson3299.70
Troymaine Pope8283.50
George Farmer111.00
Trevone Boykin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse59680
Doug Baldwin77650
Jimmy Graham69631
Tyler Lockett56630
Nick Vannett22250
Tanner McEvoy12140
Thomas Rawls11120
Troymaine Pope1150
George Farmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.07