Closing spread
SEA -8.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play+0.022
- 40.9%Success rate44.0%
- -0.038EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.49CPOE+4.81
- 36.5%Third-down rate38.7%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 1.61Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/32 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 6 | 80 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/36 | 277 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevone Boykin | 2/3 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 15 | 106 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 75 | 75.0 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| George Farmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trevone Boykin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| George Farmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.07